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Orange County Housing Market Summary August 2019

by Ashlie DuCros
  • The active listing inventory increased by 40 homes in the past two-weeks, up 0.5%, and now totals 7,601, the highest level for 2019. In the month of June, 11% fewer homes came on the market compared to June 2018. And, so far in July, it is down by 6%. Last year, there were 6,759 homes on the market, 842 fewer than today. There are 12% more homes than last year.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 44 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 2%, and now totals 2,505. Last year, there were 2,393 pending sales, 4% fewer than today.
  • The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 92 days two weeks ago to 91 days today, a Balanced Market (between 90 to 120 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 85 days last year.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 62 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 56% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 73 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 116 days, a Balanced Market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time increased from 143 to 147 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 189 to 240 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 262 to 288 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 518 to 500 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.7% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 22 foreclosures and 34 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 56 total distressed homes on the active market, up one in the past two-weeks. Last year there were 59 total distressed homes on the market, nearly the same as today.
  • There were 2,715 closed residential resales in June, 6% fewer than June 2018’s 2,879 closed sales. June marked a 7% drop from May 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.5% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Top 5 Trends in Housing Trends

by Ashlie DuCros

Top 5 Housing Trends: With five months of the year in the rearview mirror, there are crystal clear trends in 2019.

Everybody seems to have an opinion about the direction of the housing market. “Up!” “Down!” “The housing run has peaked!” “I’m going to wait for values to come crashing down.” In the end, there is way too much noise that is not rooted in facts, ignoring the data. It is time to step aside from the commotion and look at the trends that have surfaced in 2019.

Here’s a breakdown of the “Top 5” current Orange County housing trends:

1.There are a lot more homes on the market. In fact, this is the highest active inventory level since 2011. There are 7,479 homes that are currently FOR SALE. That is 27% more than last year, an additional 1,605 homes. At the start of the year, the difference was 2,204, so this trend is beginning to diminish. The big rumor is that there are a lot more homeowners opting to sell and flooding the market. The reality is that there are nearly the same number of sellers coming on the market year after year. In 2017, from January through May, 18,264 homes were placed on the market. In 2018 there were 18,199. And, there were 18,180 this year. No flood. Instead, fewer and fewer listings have been converted to sales due to muted demand. With less success, the active inventory has grown.

 2. Demand is muted compared to 2012 through the 2017. This trend emerged last year. In 2018, through May, demand (the number of new pending sales in the prior 30-days) was down by 13% compared to 2012 through 2017, the housing recovery. In 2019, it is down 20% compared to those same years. The muted demand has made it more challenging to sell. Homes are not appreciating like they used to. With values reaching record levels, the rise in incomes coupled with inflation has not been able to keep up with home prices. Also, many believe that the current seven-year housing run is reaching a peak and running out of steam. These factors are softening demand. Year over year, current demand looks a lot similar, off by only 19 pending sales, but keep in mind it was muted last year at this time. The trend of muted demand will continue for the remainder of the year.

 3.Muted demand has put a damper on closed sales. The number of closed sales is down 9% compared to last year and off by 12% compared to 2017. When there are fewer pending sales, that translates to fewer successful closed sales. For the rest of the year, expect reports of year over year closed sales to be almost identical. Keep in mind, closed sales last year were muted compared to prior years as well. From May through December in 2018, closed sales were down by 12% compared to 2017.

4.Home appreciation is now flat, so careful pricing is crucial. With a higher active inventory, coupled with muted demand, the Expected Market Time has increased substantially. Currently, it is at 85 days, a slight Seller’s Market. Unlike 2012 through 2018, housing did not enjoy a HOT Seller’s Market. It only evolved to a slight Seller’s Market, one where sellers get to call more of the shots, but homes are not appreciating much at all. Expect this trend to continue through the remainder of the year. As demand remains flat through the summer, more homes will be placed on the market and housing will evolve to a Balanced Market, one that does not favor buyers or sellers. There will be fewer multiple offer situations and homes will take an even longer time to sell. 

5.Interest rates have dropped dramatically over the past 6 months, improving affordability substantially, but not fueling much of a bump in demand. After nearly reaching 5% back in November, mortgage rates have dropped to 4%. They have not been this low since January 2018, right before they began to spike. This has increased affordability greatly. For a $750,000 mortgage, the monthly payment difference between 4% and 5% is $445. That is an annual savings of $5,340, or $26,700 in five-years. The drop in mortgage rates saved housing from slipping into a deep funk like September through December of 2018, but is has not moved the needle much in terms of increased demand. Even with the return of historically low interest rates, demand remains muted. With the Spring Market in the past, there are only a couple of great months left in the meatiest time of the year to sell. Once the market rolls into August, housing will start to transition to the Autumn Market where demand falls along with the active inventory. ( Steve Thomas- Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences)

For more information, please contact us. 

Orange County Housing Market Summary Jan 2018

by Ashlie DuCros

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

 

  • The active listing inventory increased by 310 homes since the start of the New Year and now totals 3,707. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,376 homes on the market, 669 more than today.
  • There are 31% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 28%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, plunged by 158 in the past couple of weeks, down 10%, and now totals 1,447, most likely its lowest point of the year. The average pending price is $839,613.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County decreased to $1.8 million after reaching a record $1.9 million two weeks ago. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 46 days. This range represents 38% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 67 days, a slight seller’s market (between 60 and 90 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 101 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 123 days to 157. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 196 to 188 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 266 days to 285 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 667 to 695 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and only 12% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 67 days to 77 in the past two weeks, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time drop dramatically by the end of this month.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.3% of all listings and 2.7% of demand. There are only 17 foreclosures and 33 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 50 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 11 in the past two weeks and reaching its lowest level since the very beginning of the Great Recession. Last year there were 112 total distressed sales, 124% more than today.
  • There were 2,269 closed residential resales in December, down by 9% from December 2016’s 2,484 closed sales. December marked a 6.5% drop from November 2017. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.9%. That means that 98.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

​​For more information, please contact us at 714-743-9778, or email ashlie@ashlieducros.com

Orange County Housing Market - Novemeber 2017

by Ashlie DuCros

Here is the Summary of Orange County Housing market

The active listing inventory decreased by 337 homes in the past couple of weeks, the largest drop of the year, and now totals 4,878. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 5,955 homes on the market, 1,077 more than today.

  • There are 36% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 16%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 16 homes in the past couple of weeks, up 1%, and now totals 2,409. The average pending price is $879,146.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 51 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 85 days, an extremely slight seller’s market with very slow appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 111 days to 100. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 154 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 218 days to 164 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 326 to 424 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased in the past couple of weeks from 65 days to 61 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to remain relatively flat, rising slightly by year’s end.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.2% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 20 foreclosures and 38 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 58 total distressed homes on the active market, decreasing by 9 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 133 total distressed sales, 129% more than today.
  • There were 2,543 closed residential resales in October, down by 1% from October 2016’s 2,575 closed sales. October marked a 7% drop from September 2017, normal for the Autumn Market. The sales to list price ratio was 98.2% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.7% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.2%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

​​For more information, please contact us at ashlie@ashlieducros.com or 714-743-9778

Real Estate Trends to Expect in 2017

by Ashlie DuCros

The real estate market is constantly evolving and 2017 is shaping up to be another year of change. If you're planning to buy a home in the new year (or you want to sell your existing home), it doesn't hurt to know a thing or two about what's trending in the markets. As we look ahead to the new year, here's what should be on your radar with regard to the housing markets.

 

1. Home Prices May Stabilize

Home prices have been on a steady incline in recent years. But that momentum may begin to slow down in 2017. Since the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates for the first time in a year, that could have a stabilizing effect on home prices. The National Association of Realtors estimates that price growth will slow to 3.9%, down from 4.9% in 2016.

For sellers, that may lead to a shrinking profit margin in previously hot local markets. Buyers, on the other hand, may be better positioned to snag a deal on a home in areas where prices have recently skyrocketed.

 

 

2. Demand for Housing Could Heat Up

According to the National Association of Realtors, we could see an uptick in the demand for properties in 2017. Specifically, NAR is predicting that existing home sales will top 6 million in 2017, which is similar to forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers' Association, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The increased push for housing may be driven in part by a growing number of millennials who are venturing into homeownership for the first time. In addition to purchasing single-family homes, younger buyers may buy condos as well.

 

 

3. Homeowners Could See Their Equity Rise

While the National Association of Realtors is projecting a slowdown in home prices, other housing industry experts are taking a different stance. CoreLogic, for example, is forecasting a price increase of 5.2% through September 2017. If home prices increase at that rate or close to it, some homeowners could see their home equity rise.

Having more equity in your home is a plus if you're hoping to sell your home or refinance. The more equity you've built up in your property, the more you stand to make if you decide to sell your house. If you're refinancing to pull equity out of your home for a major renovation, a higher equity value will give you more borrowing power.

 

 

4. More people will move to the suburbs for affordable housing

According to Svenja Gudell, chief economist for Zillow, as home prices continue to rise, more buyers will move to the suburbs to find affordable housing.

"After the housing bust, people were able to move back to the cities because it was much cheaper than a few years ago," she said. "Now, we see people would still like to live close to the city center where they're close to amenities and in walkable neighborhoods, but for the first time they're not able to find enough inventory that's affordable for them to buy."

As a result, many people have to look further out from cities to find homes in the right price range.

This trend could be good news for suburban homeowners who are planning to put their homes on the market in 2017. For buyers, the primary advantage of choosing the suburbs over the city is the ability to stretch their budgets. For example, $325,000 may buy you a three-bedroom home in the 'burbs versus a one-bedroom studio in the city.

 

As we usher in the new year, if you plan to sell or buy a home this year, it helps to have a local professional on your side. Contact me TODAY! 

Orange County Housing Update :: November 2016

by Ashlie DuCros

Values Up, Affordability Down
 

Homeowners in Orange County have benefited significantly from a rise in values, pushing affordability considerably lower. 

It has been nearly five years since the Orange County housing market ignited at the beginning of 2012. The median sales price then was at $400,000. With such low prices and low interest rates, it made sense to purchase. In many cases, it was actually cheaper to own than to rent. As a result, home values appreciated rapidly in 2012 and 2013. The appreciation continued in 2014 and 2015, just not as rapidly.

2016 has been more of the same, slow, methodical appreciation.

This year, the median sales price reached record levels, eclipsing heights reached in 2007. The median in August was at $649,000, that’s up 62% since the start of 2012. The tremendous appreciation translates to fewer properties for sale within the affordable price range of less than $500,000. 

Detached homes below $500,000 almost do not exist. In the past year alone, the numbers have dropped an additional 33%. Even with a slower, more methodical appreciation, more homes are climbing above the half-million-dollar threshold. And, soon, there will be fewer than a thousand condominiums available within this affordable price range.  

 

Demand

As for demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 8% from 2,693 to 2,480 in the past two weeks, the largest drop so far this year. Demand was at 2,333 pending sales last year.

With a giant drop in demand and the active inventory slowing its descent, the expected market time increased from 72 days to 77 days, a slight seller’s market.

Just the Facts

  • The average list price for all of Orange County is $1.5 million. 
  • There are 21% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 9%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums can now be found priced below $500,000.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 52 days. This range represents 46% of the active inventory and 67% of demand.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1 million to $1.5 million, the expected market time is at 128 days, increased by 15 days in the past couple of weeks. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time increased considerably from 165 days to 187 days. For luxury homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time increased from 245 days to 258 days. 

 

​​If you're thinking about making a move, call me today to discuss the value of your home. 

Orange County Housing Update :: Autumn 2016

by Ashlie DuCros

The Orange County housing market is quickly evolving as it enters the Autumn season.

In the coming weeks, you will hear and see many headlines exclaiming that “The housing markets is slowing! Homes are starting to sit on the market longer!” But don’t worry, this is actually a cyclical phenomenon we experience every year. 

It’s called AUTUMN

Housing generally shifts gears now that the kids are back in school because it’s not the most advantageous time of year to move. There are fewer sellers coming on the market. Many sellers who were unsuccessful during the Spring and Summer markets will decide to throw in the towel and pull their homes off of the market completely making the active listing inventory drop for the remainder of the year.



SELLERS
The number of buyers in the marketplace drops as well. With fewer homes coming on the market, that means there are fewer choices for buyers. 

However, sellers need to be wary of not overpricing because of low inventory. It is the season where everybody is a bit more price sensitive. Price according to the most recent comparable pending and closed sales and most homes fly off the market, even during the Autumn and Holiday markets.

 

BUYERS
The slower market does not mean that buyers can get a big “deal” during this time of the year. There are still not enough homes on the market and demand is HOT. With interest rates remaining below 4% and not looking to change much in the near future, Orange County will continue to experience a seller’s market.



JUST THE FACTS:

  • The average list price for all of Orange County is $1.5 million. 

  • There are 19% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 10% as well. As home values continue to rise, this range is slowly vanishing.​ 

  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.9% of all listings and 3% of demand. ​

  • There were 2,820 closed sales in July, a 9% drop from June and 13% fewer than last year’s 3,243 closings. ​

  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 75 to 77 days in the past couple of weeks, a slight seller’s market​. For luxury homes priced between $1 million to $1.5 million, the expected market time is at 116 days, increasing slightly by 2 days in the past couple of weeks. ​

 

If you're thinking about making a move, call me today to discuss the value of your home. Don't wait to take advantage of the buyer activity currently in the market!

 

 

 

Time is running out to enter to win $20,000 from Coldwell Banker!
 

Enter today for a chance to win at www.coldwellbankergiveaway.com/ashlieducros
 
​*Data tabulated from CRMLS. 

How Accurate are Online Home Valuations?

by Ashlie DuCros

The real estate market usually heats up with the weather making Summer a busy time for real estate. This may lead many potential sellers to wonder, 

"What's my home worth?" 

As 90% of homebuyers head to the internet first to search for a home, just as many sellers will do the same to find out the value of their home thru an online automated valuation model (AVM) such as

www.orangecountyhousevalue.com


But how accurate are these estimates? 

Many experts will tell you that they are "a good starting point" but that they have an average error rate of about 8%. That may not sound like much, but on a $500,000 house, that would be a $40,000 disparity and that's a lot of money on the table. 

That $40,000 could be unaccounted for in recent upgrades, title defects, permitted versus unpermitted structures, and other property nuances, or physical characteristics that impact local demand and value such as architectural style, year built, and layout/flow of a home. These all have a major impact on the true value of your home.

In short, it simply isn’t possible for any AVM to predict the value of a home with a level of accuracy sufficient to make a housing decision. 


For that, you should contact me to view your home personally and give you an accurate value based on your home’s unique qualities and neighborhood trends and activity. I have years of experience in effectively pricing your home to sell for top dollar! 



Get your FREE automated valuation at www.orangecountyhousevalue.com and then call me when you’re ready to place your home on the market. 

 

 

Have you entered the Coldwell Banker $20,000 Cash Giveaway

Enter for a chance to win at www.coldwellbankergiveaway.com/ashlieducros

 

The Market Needs Your Listing

by Ashlie DuCros

Thinking About Selling?

If you are debating putting your home on the market, NOW is the time.

The inventory of homes for sale is well below norms and historically, inventory increases dramatically as we approach summer. 

Selling NOW while demand is high and supply is low may garner you a quick sale for a really good price.

The number of buyers ready and willing to make a purchase is at the highest level in years so sellers hold a major negotiating advantage.

If you thought about selling your house this year, now is the time to do it!

What’s the highest price that your home could sell for? 

Call or text me to find out! 

How to Get Top Dollar for Your Home - Seller Tip #1

by Ashlie DuCros

Make The Most Of Curb Appeal!

Most buyers choose to drive by your home first before wanting to set an appointment to view. An attractive yard that is free of debris will gain interest quickly. Make sure that trees are trimmed and that your home can be seen from the street. Have the grass mowed, trimmed and edged. Walkways should be swept. Clean away all debris. Remove parked cars or RVs. When in season plant flowers to add color.

Remember, if the buyer does not like the outside, that person simply drives on to the next house. Get your home ready for drive by traffic and give folks something extra nice to look at.

Call us today for a no-nonsense, no obligation assessment of your homes value and let me show you the key factors in obtaining a top dollar sale on your home! We would definitely like to help you in any way we can! 

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Ashlie DuCros & Associates
Coldwell Banker Previews Global Luxury
21580 Yorba Linda Blvd.
Yorba Linda CA 92887
714-743-9778
Fax: 714-849-5489