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Orange County Housing Market Summary Jan 2018

by Ashlie DuCros

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

 

  • The active listing inventory increased by 310 homes since the start of the New Year and now totals 3,707. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,376 homes on the market, 669 more than today.
  • There are 31% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 28%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, plunged by 158 in the past couple of weeks, down 10%, and now totals 1,447, most likely its lowest point of the year. The average pending price is $839,613.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County decreased to $1.8 million after reaching a record $1.9 million two weeks ago. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 46 days. This range represents 38% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 67 days, a slight seller’s market (between 60 and 90 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 101 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 123 days to 157. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 196 to 188 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 266 days to 285 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 667 to 695 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and only 12% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 67 days to 77 in the past two weeks, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time drop dramatically by the end of this month.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.3% of all listings and 2.7% of demand. There are only 17 foreclosures and 33 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 50 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 11 in the past two weeks and reaching its lowest level since the very beginning of the Great Recession. Last year there were 112 total distressed sales, 124% more than today.
  • There were 2,269 closed residential resales in December, down by 9% from December 2016’s 2,484 closed sales. December marked a 6.5% drop from November 2017. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.9%. That means that 98.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

​​For more information, please contact us at 714-743-9778, or email ashlie@ashlieducros.com

Orange County Housing Market - Novemeber 2017

by Ashlie DuCros

Here is the Summary of Orange County Housing market

The active listing inventory decreased by 337 homes in the past couple of weeks, the largest drop of the year, and now totals 4,878. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 5,955 homes on the market, 1,077 more than today.

  • There are 36% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 16%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 16 homes in the past couple of weeks, up 1%, and now totals 2,409. The average pending price is $879,146.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 51 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 85 days, an extremely slight seller’s market with very slow appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 111 days to 100. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 154 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 218 days to 164 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 326 to 424 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased in the past couple of weeks from 65 days to 61 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to remain relatively flat, rising slightly by year’s end.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.2% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 20 foreclosures and 38 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 58 total distressed homes on the active market, decreasing by 9 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 133 total distressed sales, 129% more than today.
  • There were 2,543 closed residential resales in October, down by 1% from October 2016’s 2,575 closed sales. October marked a 7% drop from September 2017, normal for the Autumn Market. The sales to list price ratio was 98.2% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.7% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.2%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

​​For more information, please contact us at ashlie@ashlieducros.com or 714-743-9778

Orange County Housing Update :: November 2016

by Ashlie DuCros

Values Up, Affordability Down
 

Homeowners in Orange County have benefited significantly from a rise in values, pushing affordability considerably lower. 

It has been nearly five years since the Orange County housing market ignited at the beginning of 2012. The median sales price then was at $400,000. With such low prices and low interest rates, it made sense to purchase. In many cases, it was actually cheaper to own than to rent. As a result, home values appreciated rapidly in 2012 and 2013. The appreciation continued in 2014 and 2015, just not as rapidly.

2016 has been more of the same, slow, methodical appreciation.

This year, the median sales price reached record levels, eclipsing heights reached in 2007. The median in August was at $649,000, that’s up 62% since the start of 2012. The tremendous appreciation translates to fewer properties for sale within the affordable price range of less than $500,000. 

Detached homes below $500,000 almost do not exist. In the past year alone, the numbers have dropped an additional 33%. Even with a slower, more methodical appreciation, more homes are climbing above the half-million-dollar threshold. And, soon, there will be fewer than a thousand condominiums available within this affordable price range.  

 

Demand

As for demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 8% from 2,693 to 2,480 in the past two weeks, the largest drop so far this year. Demand was at 2,333 pending sales last year.

With a giant drop in demand and the active inventory slowing its descent, the expected market time increased from 72 days to 77 days, a slight seller’s market.

Just the Facts

  • The average list price for all of Orange County is $1.5 million. 
  • There are 21% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 9%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums can now be found priced below $500,000.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 52 days. This range represents 46% of the active inventory and 67% of demand.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1 million to $1.5 million, the expected market time is at 128 days, increased by 15 days in the past couple of weeks. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time increased considerably from 165 days to 187 days. For luxury homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time increased from 245 days to 258 days. 

 

​​If you're thinking about making a move, call me today to discuss the value of your home. 

Orange County Housing Update :: August 2016

by Ashlie DuCros

Housing in Orange County is as hot as the heat wave in SoCal!

Now that housing has been restored and distressed properties are only an asterisk, the market has been blossoming. Throw in rock bottom interest rates, even lower than last year, and you have a recipe for strong demand. And, it does not look like interest rates are going anywhere fast. The Federal Reserve raised the short term rate for the first time in nine years back in December of last year. They hinted at four more hikes in 2016. So far, NOTHING. It doesn’t appear that there will be a change until December, if at all. ​

Low interest rates are only part of the reason for hot demand though. This year, like every year since 2008, fewer homeowners are opting to sell. People are staying in their homes a lot longer and are just not moving. On average, the current turnover rate for homeowners is 23 years​.

With a low supply of homes and strong demand, it’s no wonder that there’s a heat wave in housing!


 

For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT! 

A seller’s market is between 60-90 days with very little appreciation, but sellers still get to call more of the shots during negotiation. 

The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased from 77 to 75 days in the past couple of weeks, a slight seller’s market.


Just the Facts:

  • The average list price for all of Orange County is $1.4 million. 
  • There are 128 more homes on the market compared to last year at this time. 
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.8% of all listings.
  • There were 2,820 closed sales in July, a 9% drop from June and 13% fewer than last year’s 3,243 closings.
  • Typically, the active inventory peaks in August, but this year it peaked in mid-July and has since dropped by 34 homes, now totaling 7,295. 

So if you’re thinking about selling, contact me before buyer activity and demand keeps dropping!

 

 

Have you entered the Coldwell Banker $20,000 Cash Giveaway

Enter for a chance to win at www.coldwellbankergiveaway.com/ashlieducros

Where's the Orange County Housing Market Headed?

by Ashlie DuCros


  • Active inventory already surpassed last year’s peak and is still growing, but it will fall short of the long term average.The active inventory has climbed without pause and will outpace last year's  numbers. There have not been enough homes on the market, and buyers have been tripping over each other in order to purchase their piece of the American Dream. BUT, after the peak of summer, the inventory will start to fall during the Autumn Market as unsuccessful homeowners throw in the towel, realizing that both the Spring and Summer Markets will be in the past.

  • Demand has been hot this year, but is starting to fade with the Spring Market in the rear view mirror. At one point, demand exceeded 2015 levels but from here on out, demand will slowly drop as summer progresses and will then drop even more during the Autumn Market and presidential election season, and will reach the lowest levels of the year during the Holiday Market. With demand slowing a bit due to summer distractions, from now through the end of the year, careful pricing will be crucial in order to find success. 

  • The expected market time is on the rise and it’s taking longer to sell a home this year compared to 2015. The expected market time is the amount of time it will take for a newly listed home to be placed into escrow. From March to May, the OC market was HOT and the expected market time was only 2 months! Since then, with all of the cyclical distractions,graduation and summer, the expected market time has been rising at a rapid pace. For all of Orange County, it has risen from 56 days to 79 days, adding an additional 23 days.

The market is still really hot for homes below $750,000 and condominiums below $500,000, but every price range has been slowing. The market will continue to slow throughout the summer. As the market downshifts, buyers move away from a willingness to pay any price to obtain a home, to a strong desire to pay the Fair Market Value for a home, a value determined by the most recent pending and closed sales. And, the market will slow considerably more during the Autumn Market and will most likely surpass the 90-day mark, a balanced market that does not favor buyers or sellers. 

If you are a homeowner who is debating listing your home for sale this year, now is a great time. Call me today and I can help you take advantage of the buyers that are ready, willing and able to buy in your neighborhood.

 

 

Have you entered the Coldwell Banker $20,000 Cash Giveaway


Enter for a chance to win at www.coldwellbankergiveaway.com/ashlieducros

 

Yorba Linda & Orange County Real Estate Update

by Ashlie DuCros

Orange County's home sales volume is low, but rising. Nationally, and especially locally, there has been a real supply issue. For this time of year, the average active inventory for Orange County is down by 38%.

Headlines and real estate agents are not exaggerating when they state that there are not enough homes on the market. With extremely favorable interest rates, there is tremendous demand. Strong demand coupled with a low supply means that the real estate market favors sellers, not buyers. So, listing your house for sale now will allow you to capitalize on the shortage of homes for sale in the market, which will translate into a better pricing situation.

If you are debating selling your home this year, contact me for a free consultation where I can evaluate the equity you have in your home.

 

Yorba Linda Real Estate Market Update

by Ashlie DuCros

Yorba Linda Real Estate Market Update for September 2014

There are total of 295 homes for Sale in Yorba Linda. Yorba Linda's home resale inventories decreased slightly, with a 1 percent decrease since August 2014. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales remained the same as a percentage of the total market in September. The median listing price in Yorba Linda stayed the same from August to September. There were a total of 21 price increases and 125 price decreases.  Total  homes in escrow is 124, with total of 69 homes that closed in August 2014.

Are you curious about your home value? Simply go to www.YorbaLindaHomeValue.com to find out via email!

Real Estate Facts:A look at Spring 2014 Housing Market

by Ashlie DuCros

Real Estate Facts: A look at Spring 2014 Housing Market.

What do you think about this article?

 Written by Steve Cook on March 4, 2014 in Real Estate  |   No comments 

real estate factsLast year, housing prices increased more than they had in seven years, and buyers’ markets turned into sellers’ markets overnight. In many cities and towns across the country, this price jump was a result of inventory shortages that forced buyers to compete over the few homes that were available for sale.

Will the housing recovery continue at a rip-roaring pace this spring, or will it slow down to let real estate consumers catch up?

Real estate facts for spring 2014

Whether you’re buying a home or selling a home this year, you should be planning for the opening of the spring homebuying season. Spring is the time of the year when most new homes come onto the market and when most buyers are looking—especially families with school-age children who want to be settled in their new homes in time for school in the fall.

The spring season sets the pattern for the year in terms of sales and price. So even if snow is still on the ground where you live, it’s time to get an idea of what to expect when your housing market emerges from hibernation.

Prices will rise—slowly. After explosive gains in many markets, home prices retreated in the fall of 2013 and the recovery’s momentum slowed. While home prices are expected to continue to rise this year, the stage has been set for them to do so at a much slower pace than last year. Experts predict that prices will rise between 3 percent and 4 percent nationally—more in the hot markets of California and less in markets such as Ohio, New England, and the Southeast.

An upswing in prices is good news for sellers hoping to get good money for their homes. Yet prices remain below their historic highs, despite the rising prices, which is fortunate for buyers.

Inventory may be limited. On January 1, inventories on Realtor.com’s database of nearly 2 million listings had fallen to virtually the same levels as last year, erasing the year-over-year inventory growth. This raises questions about the possibility of a return to the market dynamics of last year, which saw inventory shortfalls drive prices upward.

Monitor inventories in your market to see if they grow as significantly as they should in February and March. If not, you might see a repeat of last year’s shortage-driven price bubbles.

Market times will be shorter. If you’re a buyer, be ready to move fast this spring. The average market time among the 52 markets surveyed by RE/MAX in November was only 68 days. These short market times indicate that other buyers are ready to move fast, and you should be too.

Of course, market time will vary by the price of the home. Lower priced entry-level homes will sell faster than luxury homes priced at $1 million or more. According to the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, more expensive homes are selling in a median of 181 days.

There are more question marks than usual this spring season because of the dramatic price surge of 2013 and the unanticipated shortages of homes last year. Even so, the 2014 season should be much better for buyers and sellers, with prices on the rise (but still below historic peaks in most markets) and mortgages easier to get for borrowers with good jobs and good credit.

Steve Cook is managing editor of Real Estate Economy Watch, which was recognized as one of the two best real estate news sires of 2011 by the National Association of Real Estate Editors. Before he co-founded REEW in 2007, he was vice president of public affairs for the National Association of Realtors. In 2006 and 2007, he was named one of the 100 most influential people in real estate. During his 30 years in public affairs, Cook has been a broadcast news correspondent, served two Members of Congress as press secretary and was a senior executive in the world’s largest independent public relations firm in Washington and Chicago.

Mortage applications drop as rates edge higher...

by Ashlie DuCros

Mortgage Applications Drop as Rates Edge Higher

For the second consecutive week, mortgage applications fell as higher interest rates continued to put the squeeze on refinancing activity, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. 

The MBA’s index on mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchases, dropped 4.6 percent for the week ending Aug. 16. 

The refinance index was attributed to that drop, falling 7.7 percent last week from the previous week -- its largest weekly drop since late June. The refinance index has fallen 62.1 percent since reaching its peak during the week ending May 3. 

Applications dropped as mortgage rates rose 12 basis points to 4.68 percent last week. That matches the year’s high for 30-year mortgage rates, which was first hit in July, according to the MBA. Mortgage rates continue to rise as concerns mount over the Fed tapering its bond-buying program, which had been keeping mortgage rates near its historical lows in recent months. 

However, mortgage rates still remain low by historical standards and are still attracting home buyers. The MBA’s index showed that loan demand for home purchases, viewed as a gauge for future home sales, rose 1.2 percent last week. That climb comes after a 5.4 percent drop the previous week, the MBA reports. 

Source: “U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Push Higher,” Reuters (Aug. 21, 2013

More Sellers Jump Into Favorable Market

by The Wall Street Journal

Daily Real Estate News | Monday, June 10, 2013

 
 

Inventories of for-sale homes are increasing as more owners see rising home prices and faster sales as a reason to try to sell now, according to industry reports.

In April, the number of listings was higher than the level of homes that were under contract in that month, according to a study by the real estate brokerage ZipRealty, which measured listings in 24 major metro markets.

“It’s less of an indication of buyer momentum flagging and more of seller momentum picking up, finally,” says Lanny Baker, the company’s chief executive.

The reports find that homes are selling faster—on average, within 32 days of being listed. In April 2012, that average stood at 48 days for homes to sell.

“A market in which the sale prices are happening very close to the list prices, a market in which the list prices seem to be moving sequentially higher, and a market in which any of those houses are selling speedily is one that is bringing sellers back,” Baker says. “That makes it feel to a seller that this isn’t going to be a long passive despair that I tried three years ago.”

Source: “Why More Sellers Could Test the Market,” The Wall Street Journal (June 10, 2013)

 

 

 

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Ashlie DuCros & Associates
Coldwell Banker Previews Global Luxury
21580 Yorba Linda Blvd.
Yorba Linda CA 92887
714-743-9778
Fax: 714-849-5489