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Top 5 Trends in Housing Trends

by Ashlie DuCros

Top 5 Housing Trends: With five months of the year in the rearview mirror, there are crystal clear trends in 2019.

Everybody seems to have an opinion about the direction of the housing market. “Up!” “Down!” “The housing run has peaked!” “I’m going to wait for values to come crashing down.” In the end, there is way too much noise that is not rooted in facts, ignoring the data. It is time to step aside from the commotion and look at the trends that have surfaced in 2019.

Here’s a breakdown of the “Top 5” current Orange County housing trends:

1.There are a lot more homes on the market. In fact, this is the highest active inventory level since 2011. There are 7,479 homes that are currently FOR SALE. That is 27% more than last year, an additional 1,605 homes. At the start of the year, the difference was 2,204, so this trend is beginning to diminish. The big rumor is that there are a lot more homeowners opting to sell and flooding the market. The reality is that there are nearly the same number of sellers coming on the market year after year. In 2017, from January through May, 18,264 homes were placed on the market. In 2018 there were 18,199. And, there were 18,180 this year. No flood. Instead, fewer and fewer listings have been converted to sales due to muted demand. With less success, the active inventory has grown.

 2. Demand is muted compared to 2012 through the 2017. This trend emerged last year. In 2018, through May, demand (the number of new pending sales in the prior 30-days) was down by 13% compared to 2012 through 2017, the housing recovery. In 2019, it is down 20% compared to those same years. The muted demand has made it more challenging to sell. Homes are not appreciating like they used to. With values reaching record levels, the rise in incomes coupled with inflation has not been able to keep up with home prices. Also, many believe that the current seven-year housing run is reaching a peak and running out of steam. These factors are softening demand. Year over year, current demand looks a lot similar, off by only 19 pending sales, but keep in mind it was muted last year at this time. The trend of muted demand will continue for the remainder of the year.

 3.Muted demand has put a damper on closed sales. The number of closed sales is down 9% compared to last year and off by 12% compared to 2017. When there are fewer pending sales, that translates to fewer successful closed sales. For the rest of the year, expect reports of year over year closed sales to be almost identical. Keep in mind, closed sales last year were muted compared to prior years as well. From May through December in 2018, closed sales were down by 12% compared to 2017.

4.Home appreciation is now flat, so careful pricing is crucial. With a higher active inventory, coupled with muted demand, the Expected Market Time has increased substantially. Currently, it is at 85 days, a slight Seller’s Market. Unlike 2012 through 2018, housing did not enjoy a HOT Seller’s Market. It only evolved to a slight Seller’s Market, one where sellers get to call more of the shots, but homes are not appreciating much at all. Expect this trend to continue through the remainder of the year. As demand remains flat through the summer, more homes will be placed on the market and housing will evolve to a Balanced Market, one that does not favor buyers or sellers. There will be fewer multiple offer situations and homes will take an even longer time to sell. 

5.Interest rates have dropped dramatically over the past 6 months, improving affordability substantially, but not fueling much of a bump in demand. After nearly reaching 5% back in November, mortgage rates have dropped to 4%. They have not been this low since January 2018, right before they began to spike. This has increased affordability greatly. For a $750,000 mortgage, the monthly payment difference between 4% and 5% is $445. That is an annual savings of $5,340, or $26,700 in five-years. The drop in mortgage rates saved housing from slipping into a deep funk like September through December of 2018, but is has not moved the needle much in terms of increased demand. Even with the return of historically low interest rates, demand remains muted. With the Spring Market in the past, there are only a couple of great months left in the meatiest time of the year to sell. Once the market rolls into August, housing will start to transition to the Autumn Market where demand falls along with the active inventory. ( Steve Thomas- Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences)

For more information, please contact us. 

Orange County Housing Market Summary Jan 2018

by Ashlie DuCros

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

 

  • The active listing inventory increased by 310 homes since the start of the New Year and now totals 3,707. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,376 homes on the market, 669 more than today.
  • There are 31% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 28%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, plunged by 158 in the past couple of weeks, down 10%, and now totals 1,447, most likely its lowest point of the year. The average pending price is $839,613.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County decreased to $1.8 million after reaching a record $1.9 million two weeks ago. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 46 days. This range represents 38% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 67 days, a slight seller’s market (between 60 and 90 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 101 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 123 days to 157. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 196 to 188 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 266 days to 285 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 667 to 695 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and only 12% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 67 days to 77 in the past two weeks, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time drop dramatically by the end of this month.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.3% of all listings and 2.7% of demand. There are only 17 foreclosures and 33 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 50 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 11 in the past two weeks and reaching its lowest level since the very beginning of the Great Recession. Last year there were 112 total distressed sales, 124% more than today.
  • There were 2,269 closed residential resales in December, down by 9% from December 2016’s 2,484 closed sales. December marked a 6.5% drop from November 2017. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.9%. That means that 98.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

​​For more information, please contact us at 714-743-9778, or email ashlie@ashlieducros.com

Orange County Housing Market - Novemeber 2017

by Ashlie DuCros

Here is the Summary of Orange County Housing market

The active listing inventory decreased by 337 homes in the past couple of weeks, the largest drop of the year, and now totals 4,878. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 5,955 homes on the market, 1,077 more than today.

  • There are 36% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 16%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 16 homes in the past couple of weeks, up 1%, and now totals 2,409. The average pending price is $879,146.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 51 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 85 days, an extremely slight seller’s market with very slow appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 111 days to 100. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 154 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 218 days to 164 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 326 to 424 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased in the past couple of weeks from 65 days to 61 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to remain relatively flat, rising slightly by year’s end.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.2% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 20 foreclosures and 38 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 58 total distressed homes on the active market, decreasing by 9 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 133 total distressed sales, 129% more than today.
  • There were 2,543 closed residential resales in October, down by 1% from October 2016’s 2,575 closed sales. October marked a 7% drop from September 2017, normal for the Autumn Market. The sales to list price ratio was 98.2% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.7% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.2%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

​​For more information, please contact us at ashlie@ashlieducros.com or 714-743-9778

5 Ways to Sell Your House Stress-Free

by Ashlie DuCros

You’ve made the decision to sell your house. You may have been mulling it over for years, or perhaps a sudden life change has prompted you to make the leap. Whether you’re relocating for a job, empty-nest downsizing, or just need a change, you’ve made it past the first hurdle of reaching the decision!

But the many complicated logistics of selling your house may feel overwhelming. Before you get stressed out and change your mind about the whole thing, know that there are some great ways to stay focused and positive as you navigate this important step. Here are some tips to help you sell your house stress-free to make this leap a very positive one.

Be Clear About Your Objectives Up Front

A lot of communication is required when selling a house, so it’s critical to set a clear set of objectives to yourself and everyone else involved in the process: your real estate agent, your family, and your friends. From the outset, determine an attainable selling price for your home with your real estate agent, and set up clear and reliable lines of communication.

Be clear with your family and friends about what they can expect during the process, and what you’ll need from them to help facilitate the situation with as little stress as possible. Determining your goals and expectations and sharing them clearly with those closest to you is a critical step in eliminating undue stress as you maneuver through the process of selling your home.

 

Stay Flexible

You may have an idea in your head of how long it will take to sell your home. If it begins to take longer than what you expected, the stress will grow. Keep in mind that there are so many variables at play—the location, the price, the market—and you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you set your mind to a too rigid deadline. An immediate house sale is rare, so it’s best to curb your expectations and stay flexible as the process unfolds.

 

Keep Things Tidy

You may be required to show your home to potential buyers at a moment’s notice. Maybe they’re in the area and want to pop in to view your home, or perhaps some out-of-towners want to add your house to their list before ending their visit. You won’t be so easily rattled by these last-second requests if you work diligently to keep your house tidy and in order at all times.

Make beds before leaving for work in the morning, never leave dishes in the kitchen sink, and keep up with the laundry and vacuuming. Thoroughly clean the bathrooms every week. If this is overwhelming, consider hiring cleaning help during this transition period. You may want to consider enlisting the help of a willing friend or neighbor who can help with last-minute tidying up if you can’t leave work. Keeping things neat consistently will dramatically reduce your stress level when last-minute showings come up.

 

Leave the House for Social Activities

Sometimes the pressure of unexpected showings and persistent phone calls can begin to take an emotional toll. To stick a pin in the building stress of selling a home, give yourself permission to get out of the house on occasion.

Go out to dinner with friends. Take a long weekend trip. Go to a museum or sporting event. Think of this time as an investment in your personal well-being, by getting your mind off the house sale for a bit. Getting out of the house can work wonders, especially during the first few weeks your house is listed.

 

Adopt a Healthy Lifestyle

No matter how all-encompassing it may seem, selling a house is never more than one piece of the large pie of life. Don’t forsake your other needs and demands while navigating the process of selling a home. Maintain a healthy lifestyle throughout the process by eating healthy meals and getting plenty of exercise and sleep.

If you plan to move out of town, you may not be inclined to get a gym membership or join a yoga class. But you can still walk for a half hour every day or take the kids to a park where you can blow off some steam together.

Getting the appropriate nutrition is a natural way to help your body fight stress. Drink more water, pass on the fried foods, and get more hours of sleep than normal. You’ll thank yourself for the extra effort.

Selling your house can be stressful, but if you set realistic expectations and come to terms with the certainty of uncertainty for the time being, you’ll make it through with a smile.

If you need help selling your home, contact me today!

How Accurate are Online Home Valuations?

by Ashlie DuCros

The real estate market usually heats up with the weather making Summer a busy time for real estate. This may lead many potential sellers to wonder, 

"What's my home worth?" 

As 90% of homebuyers head to the internet first to search for a home, just as many sellers will do the same to find out the value of their home thru an online automated valuation model (AVM) such as

www.orangecountyhousevalue.com


But how accurate are these estimates? 

Many experts will tell you that they are "a good starting point" but that they have an average error rate of about 8%. That may not sound like much, but on a $500,000 house, that would be a $40,000 disparity and that's a lot of money on the table. 

That $40,000 could be unaccounted for in recent upgrades, title defects, permitted versus unpermitted structures, and other property nuances, or physical characteristics that impact local demand and value such as architectural style, year built, and layout/flow of a home. These all have a major impact on the true value of your home.

In short, it simply isn’t possible for any AVM to predict the value of a home with a level of accuracy sufficient to make a housing decision. 


For that, you should contact me to view your home personally and give you an accurate value based on your home’s unique qualities and neighborhood trends and activity. I have years of experience in effectively pricing your home to sell for top dollar! 



Get your FREE automated valuation at www.orangecountyhousevalue.com and then call me when you’re ready to place your home on the market. 

 

 

Have you entered the Coldwell Banker $20,000 Cash Giveaway

Enter for a chance to win at www.coldwellbankergiveaway.com/ashlieducros

 

Sell NOW Before Competition Hits the Market

by Ashlie DuCros

In the recent Home Price Expectation Survey released last week, Pulsenomics asked 100+ economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists this question: 

“In your opinion, what is the primary driver of recent home value growth in the U.S.?”

 Here are the top four reasons given by those surveyed:

As we have stated before, this means that this is a great time to sell your home as supply is low and demand is high.
But the seller's advantage won't last for long. 
As more homeowners realize their equity situation has dramatically improved over the last four years, they will be more likely to put their homes on the market. So don’t wait for additional competition to hit the market. If you are considering selling your house, now may be the time. Call me to discuss your real estate goals! 
 

Enter for a chance to win at www.coldwellbankergiveaway.com/ashlieducros

Tax Break for Seniors

by Ashlie DuCros

Are you:

  • 55+ years old?
  • Looking to “move down” to a smaller residence?
  • Hesitant to move because of increasing property taxes?

 Then Proposition 60 Can Offer You Relief!

 

  • If you live in California and are over the age of 55, you can effectively reduce your property taxes when buying a new home. 
     
  • Proposition 60 allows you to transfer your current property’s assessed value into a new replacement property. In other words, you would be able to buy a new property, yet still pay the same property taxes you pay on your current property.
     
  • You can even transfer your base tax value from one county to another (Prop 90).
     
  • You only have a limited time for transferring your low tax base to your next home.

​​

Click here for additional details from the California State Board of Equalization or contact me TODAY for info and to see if you qualify for significant tax breaks!

 

How to Get Top Dollar for Your Home - Seller Tip #1

by Ashlie DuCros

Make The Most Of Curb Appeal!

Most buyers choose to drive by your home first before wanting to set an appointment to view. An attractive yard that is free of debris will gain interest quickly. Make sure that trees are trimmed and that your home can be seen from the street. Have the grass mowed, trimmed and edged. Walkways should be swept. Clean away all debris. Remove parked cars or RVs. When in season plant flowers to add color.

Remember, if the buyer does not like the outside, that person simply drives on to the next house. Get your home ready for drive by traffic and give folks something extra nice to look at.

Call us today for a no-nonsense, no obligation assessment of your homes value and let me show you the key factors in obtaining a top dollar sale on your home! We would definitely like to help you in any way we can! 

Yorba Linda Real Estate Market Update

by Ashlie DuCros

Yorba Linda Real Estate Market Update for September 2014

There are total of 295 homes for Sale in Yorba Linda. Yorba Linda's home resale inventories decreased slightly, with a 1 percent decrease since August 2014. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales remained the same as a percentage of the total market in September. The median listing price in Yorba Linda stayed the same from August to September. There were a total of 21 price increases and 125 price decreases.  Total  homes in escrow is 124, with total of 69 homes that closed in August 2014.

Are you curious about your home value? Simply go to www.YorbaLindaHomeValue.com to find out via email!

Pending Home Sales Index Up 7% Over 2012

by Ashlie DuCros

 

 
 
 
 

Pending home sales increased in March and remain above year-ago levels. However, contract activity in recent months shows only modest movement, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 1.5 percent in March, over a downwardly revised figure in February. The index is 7 percent above year-ago numbers, reflecting the fact that pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 23 months.

“Contract activity has been in a narrow range in recent months, not from a pause in demand but because of limited supply.  Little movement is expected in near-term sales closings, but they should edge up modestly as the year progresses,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Job additions and rising household wealth will continue to support housing demand.”

In the Northeast, the index was unchanged in March, but is 6.3 percent higher than in March 2012.  In the Midwest the index increased 0.3 percent, 13.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 2.7 percent, which is 10.4 percent higher than March 2012.  In the West the index increased 1.5 percent, but is 4.3 percent below a year ago.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Ashlie DuCros & Associates
Coldwell Banker Previews Global Luxury
21580 Yorba Linda Blvd.
Yorba Linda CA 92887
714-743-9778
Fax: 714-849-5489