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Homes Are Selling Faster

by Ashlie DuCros

Daily Real Estate News | Monday, October 22, 2012

Inventories of for-sale homes aren’t the only thing that is dropping. The amount of time homes are staying on the market is growing shorter as well—down 11 percent in the last year—according to the latest Realtor.com data.

Homes were listed on average 95 days, according to September housing data. That is down from 107 days a year earlier.

Homes are selling the fastest in Oakland, Calif., in which the median age of the inventory averages 21 days, which is 57 percent below what it was a year ago. Denver, Colo. boasts a median age of inventory of only 38 days, followed by fast-selling markets of Stockton-Lodi, Calif., with 43 days, and San Francisco with 44 days.

As the median age of the inventory is falling, inventories of for-sale homes continue to hover at record lows too, dropping 18 percent last month compared to a year ago.

“There’s a recovery,” Curt Beardsley, vice president of Realtor.com, told BusinessWeek. “Our market times are low and there’s actually a compression of inventory.”

Home buyer demand is increasing, with housing affordability still high and ultra low mortgage rates that have pushed home buyers’ purchasing power higher. The rise in demand has caused asking prices to also rise. Last month, the median asking price was $191,500, which is up 0.8 percent compared to a year earlier, Realtor.com reports.

Source: "Listings of Homes for Sale Drop as U.S. Housing Recovers," BusinessWeek (Oct. 15, 2012) and REALTOR® Magazine Daily News

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

 

A New Housing Boom

by Ashlie DuCros

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The long-battered housing market is finally starting to get back on its feet. But some experts believe it could soon become another housing boom.

Signs of recovery have been evident in the recent pick ups in home prices, home sales and construction. Foreclosures are also down and the Federal Reserve has acted to push mortgage rates near record lows. 

But while many economists believe this emerging housing recovery will produce only slow and modest improvement in home prices, construction and jobs, others believe the rebound will be much stronger.

Barclays Capital put out a report recently forecasting that home prices, which fell by more than a third after the housing bubble burst in 2007, could be back to peak levels as soon as 2015.

"In our view, the housing market had undergone a dramatic over-correction during the prior five years, resulting in pent-up demand for housing purchases that would spark a rapid rise in housing starts," said Stephen Kim, an analyst with Barclays, in a note to clients.

In addition to what Kim sees as a big rebound in building, he's bullish on home prices, expecting rises of 5% to 7.5% a year.

Related: Where housing is most (and least) affordable

Construction is expected to be even stronger, with numerous experts forecasting home construction to grow by at least 20% a year for each of the next two years. Some believe building could be back near the pre-bubble average of about 1.5 million new homes a year by 2016, about double the 750,000 homes expected this year.

"We think the recovery is for real this time around," said Rick Palacios, senior analyst with John Burns Real Estate Consulting. "If you look across the U.S. economy right now, there are only a handful of industries looking at 20-30% growth over the next 4-5 years, and housing is one of those."

Home builder stocks are up 162% in the last 12 months, led by a 250% jump at PulteGroup (PHM). Other leading builders including DR Horton (DHI), Toll Brothers (TOL), KB Home (KBH) and Lennar (LEN) have all seen their stocks more than double over that time. New orders at publicly-traded builders are up 30% since January, according to Kim.

Related: Is buying rental property now a sure bet?

Palacios said stocks in other sectors, from manufacturers of drywall to flooring to kitchen and bath fixtures, have all more than doubled as well this year.

The housing rebound can have a ripple effect that could help get the entire economy growing at a much stronger pace, which will add to more demand for housing.

 But while many economists believe this emerging housing recovery will produce only slow and modest improvement in home prices, construction and jobs, others believe the rebound will be much stronger.

Barclays Capital put out a report recently forecasting that home prices, which fell by more than a third after the housing bubble burst in 2007, could be back to peak levels as soon as 2015.

"In our view, the housing market had undergone a dramatic over-correction during the prior five years, resulting in pent-up demand for housing purchases that would spark a rapid rise in housing starts," said Stephen Kim, an analyst with Barclays, in a note to clients.

In addition to what Kim sees as a big rebound in building, he's bullish on home prices, expecting rises of 5% to 7.5% a year.

Related: Where housing is most (and least) affordable

Construction is expected to be even stronger, with numerous experts forecasting home construction to grow by at least 20% a year for each of the next two years. Some believe building could be back near the pre-bubble average of about 1.5 million new homes a year by 2016, about double the 750,000 homes expected this year.

"We think the recovery is for real this time around," said Rick Palacios, senior analyst with John Burns Real Estate Consulting. "If you look across the U.S. economy right now, there are only a handful of industries looking at 20-30% growth over the next 4-5 years, and housing is one of those."

Home builder stocks are up 162% in the last 12 months, led by a 250% jump at PulteGroup (PHM). Other leading builders including DR Horton (DHI), Toll Brothers (TOL), KB Home (KBH) and Lennar (LEN) have all seen their stocks more than double over that time. New orders at publicly-traded builders are up 30% since January, according to Kim.

Related: Is buying rental property now a sure bet?

Palacios said stocks in other sectors, from manufacturers of drywall to flooring to kitchen and bath fixtures, have all more than doubled as well this year.

The housing rebound can have a ripple effect that could help get the entire economy growing at a much stronger pace, which will add to more demand for housing.

"That turn in the [housing] market is occurring now and it should become a boom by 2015. It will be powerful enough ... to lift the entire U.S. economy," said Roger Altman, chairman of Evercore Partners and former deputy Treasury secretary, in a column for the Financial Times.

Altman said he expects housing will add 4 million jobs to the economy over the next five years, as pent-up demand for home purchases drives building and and home prices higher.

By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney

 

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com



 

 

Home Buyers Grow Frustrated by Low Inventories

by Ashlie DuCros

Daily Real Estate News | Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Low inventories of homes for-sale are becoming troubling to home buyers, Inman News reports. Almost every major market in the U.S. has posted double-digit decreases in for-sale listings.

"The buyers tend to become a little frustrated as they are seeing homes that they want to 'think about' and before they can even get home to discuss it there are already multiple offers on the property," Sheri Moritz, a real estate broker with Keller Williams' Wake Home Team in Raleigh, N.C., told Inman News. In Raleigh, inventories have fallen 21 percent in the past year, according to Realtor.com data.

"I counsel buyers to be patient, and not get discouraged, that it may take extra time to find the suitable property," adds Tom Avent, broker-owner at Tom Avent Real Estate in Fresno, Calif., which has posted a 43.1 percent drop in inventories in the past year. "I have also seen some buyers give up looking, frustrated with low inventory and losing out in multiple-offer bidding."

Multiple bid situations are a common occurrence in many markets. But surveys show that home buyers lose their enthusiasm when faced with competition for a property, according to a recent survey by Redfin. Seven in 10 of home buyers surveyed reported that they’ve faced competition on at least one of their offers recently, but 31 percent say they would back off when faced with a multiple offer situation for a home, according to the Redfin survey.

Charles Roberts, a director at the Denver Board of REALTORS® and co-owner of Your Castle Real Estate, says that “urgency” is the new landscape greeting home buyers.

"Gone are the days of looking at 50 homes and taking months to make a decision,” Roberts told Inman News. “If there's a good property on the market, buyers need to act quickly, and yes, sometimes bid above asking price. The educated, thoughtful clients are getting great deals with astoundingly low interest rates. The clients that are still insisting on putting offers at 80 cents on the dollar are getting shut out of the market. They either learn that that strategy doesn't work anymore or they keep on renting. Our job as real estate agents is to teach them what the market looks like and guide them in their decision-making."

Source: “Low Inventories Thwarting Buyers,” Inman News (Oct. 1, 2012)

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

 

Housing Recovery Expands

by Ashlie DuCros

 

The recovery in the housing market is showing itself beyond just rising new and existing-home sales and home price increases.

Home builder stocks, for example, have become the strongest performers of the year in the stock market. Some home builder stocks, like Pulte Group, have even more than doubled in the last year.

With home prices showing signs of stabilizing or even rising too, more home owners also are investing in their homes, either remodeling or purchasing new furniture or appliances, says Brian E. Peery, co-manager of the Hennessy Cornerstone Growth fund. For example, home improvement items like cabinets and plumbing fixtures are seeing sales volumes rebound.

“It does appear we’ve turned the corner and a housing recovery is under way,” says Bradley B. Thomas, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. “We continue to expect recovery over the next three to five years, if not five to 10 years.”

While the progress has been undeniable in the overall housing market recovery, Thomas points out several challenges remain, such as credit remains tight for those trying to qualifying for financing, and a large inventory of foreclosures continuing to threaten the market. Also, new home construction is still nearly 50 percent below the average monthly level it has been for the last 30 years.

“After having overbuilt for a number of years,” adds David D. Weaver, a co-manager of the Adams Express closed-end equity fund. “We have probably under built recently.”

Source: “Ways to Play a Recovery in Housing,” The New York Times (Oct. 6, 2012)

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

 

October 2012 Home Stats in Orange County

by Ashlie DuCros

Check out these numbers of homes for sale vs. in escrow for the month of October in Orange County real estate. For more information, please contact us at aducroshomes@gmail.com, or 714-743-9778

 

Orange County Home Stats

October 2012

 
 

City

For Sale

In Escrow

 

Anaheim

185

310

 

Anaheim Hills

75

48

 

Brea

36

49

 

Fullerton

141

121

 

Irvine

345

203

 

Laguna Beach

193

32

 

Newport Coast

85

20

 

Orange

158

137

 

Tustin

64

84

 

Yorba Linda

142

92

 

 

Cost of a Home: Impact of Interest Rates

by Ashlie DuCros

 

by The KCM Crew on October 2, 2012

The buyer should always look at the COST of a home, not just the PRICE. The cost is determined by the price and the mortgage interest rate which is available at the time. Below is a list of the interest rates over the last ten years and the impact they have on a $100,000 mortgage payment.

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

 

39 Days of Supply in “Crazy” OC Home Market

by Ashlie DuCros

 

Source: OC Register, October 1, 2012. Jon Lasner

The expected market time for all of Orange County is only 39 days, a low not seen since May 2005. It tends to increase with the transition from the Summer to Autumn Market, but not right now. Instead, it has been continuously dropping for the past three months. Let’s put the current market into proper perspective. A balanced market has an expected market time right around five months. At just 39 days, it is a deep seller’s market.

  • Market time of 1.31 months for Orange County buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 1.40 months two weeks ago vs. 3.61 months a year ago vs. 4.28 months two years ago.
  • Of the 8 Orange County pricing slices tracked, 7 had faster market time vs. 2 weeks ago; and 8 improved over a year ago.
  • Orange County homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.01 months vs. 4.59 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
  • So, basically, it is 4.5 times harder to sell a million-dollar-plus residence!
  • And just so you know, the million-dollar market represents 30% of all homes listed and 9% of all homes that entered into escrow in the past 30 days.

    Slice

    Listings

    Deals

    Market Time (months)

    2 week ago

    1 yr. ago

    2 yr. ago

    $0-$250k

    538

    571

    0.94

    1.00

    2.84

    3.15

    $250k-$500k

    1,094

    1,463

    0.75

    0.78

    2.68

    3.37

    $500k-$750k

    895

    785

    1.14

    1.30

    3.93

    4.42

    $750k-$1m

    591

    266

    2.22

    2.51

    6.11

    5.98

    $1m-$1.5m

    445

    148

    3.01

    3.23

    6.85

    6.90

    $1.5m-$2m

    264

    68

    3.88

    4.66

    10.05

    12.63

    $2m-4m

    394

    56

    7.04

    6.26

    14.94

    14.28

    $4m+

    232

    19

    12.21

    19.75

    35.88

    31.00

    All O.C.

    4,416

    3,366

    1.31

    1.40

    3.61

 Find out how much your home is worth today! Go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

Displaying blog entries 1-7 of 7

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Ashlie DuCros & Associates
Coldwell Banker Previews Global Luxury
21580 Yorba Linda Blvd.
Yorba Linda CA 92887
714-743-9778
Fax: 714-849-5489