Real Estate Information Archive

Blog

Displaying blog entries 1-3 of 3

January Pending Home Sales Up in All Regions

by Ashlie DuCros

 

Pending home sales rose in January, and have been above year-ago levels for the past 21 months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. There were healthy monthly gains in all regions but the West, which, despite being constrained by limited inventory, still improved slightly.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 4.5 percent to 105.9 in January from a downwardly revised 101.3 in December and is 9.5 percent above January 2012, when it was 96.7. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The January index is the highest reading since April 2010, when it hit 110.9, just before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Aside from spikes induced by the tax credits, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 when it reached 107.9.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said inventory is the key to this year’s housing market. “Favorable affordability conditions and job growth have unleashed a pent-up demand. Most areas are drawing down housing inventory, which has shifted the supply-demand balance to sellers in much of the country. It’s also why we’re experiencing the strongest price growth in more than seven years,” he said.

“Over the near term, rising contract activity means higher home sales, but total sales for the year are expected to rise less than in 2012, while home prices are projected to rise more strongly because of inventory shortages,” Yun said.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 8.2 percent to 84.8 in January and is 10.5 percent higher than January 2012. In the Midwest, the index increased 4.5 percent to 105.0 in January and is 17.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 5.9 percent to an index of 119.3 in January and are 11.3 percent higher January 2012. In the West, the index edged up 0.1 percent in January to 102.1 but is 1.5 percent below a year ago.

Yun expects approximately 5.0 million existing-home sales this year. However, price growth could exceed a 7 percent gain projected for 2013 if inventory supplies remain low. Previously, NAR had expected 5.1 million existing-home sales in 2013, while prices were forecast to rise 5.5 to 6.0 percent.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Also released today are annual data revisions. Each February, NAR Research incorporates a review of seasonal activity factors and fine-tunes historic data for the past three years based on the most recent findings. There are no changes to unadjusted or annual data

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

 

For-Sale Home Inventories Remain Tight

by Ashlie DuCros

 

Inventory levels in 2012 reached an 11-year low and fell yet again last month, further limiting the number of homes for sale nationwide. Inventories of for-sale homes were down by 16.5 percent in January year-over-year, and fell 5.6 percent from December, according to the latest data compiled from Realtor.com.

Inventories typically fall in December and January in preparation of the spring buying season.

“But the shortage of homes for sale in a growing number of U.S. markets is maddening for would-be buyers who frequently complain that there aren’t enough good choices,” The Wall Street Journal reports. “Bidding wars are becoming more common.”

At a time when buyer demand is strong, inventories remain constrained as banks slow their pace of foreclosures and home owners delay selling until they regain more equity in their homes.

Metro areas posting some of the largest monthly declines in inventory levels are San Francisco (where inventory levels are down by 21 percent in January compared to December and down 47 percent year-over-year) as well as Seattle (where levels dropped 9 percent from December). The two have also seen some of the largest price increases in the nation. Median asking prices have risen by 16.4 percent and 23.7 percent in those places, respectively.

Source: “Housing Inventory, Already Low, Dropped Further in January,” The Wall Street Journal (Feb. 14, 2013)

For more information, please contact Ashlie DuCros at 714-743-9778, or go to www.AshlieDuCros.com

Orange County Home Stats for February 2013

by Ashlie DuCros

 

February 2013 Orange County Home Stats:  

Homes For Sale VS Homes in Escrow

  For Sale In Escrow    
Anaheim 120 174    
Anaheim Hills 56 42    
Brea 22 34    
Fullerton 118 74    
Irvine 211 160    
Laguna Beach 164 22    
Newport Coast 51 11    
Orange 120 74    
Tustin 43 12    
Yorba Linda 105 60    
         
Check out these numbers of homes for sale vs. in escrow for the month of February  in Orange County real estate. For more information, please contact us at Aducroshomes@gmail.com, or 714-743-9778  

 

Displaying blog entries 1-3 of 3

Syndication

Categories

Archives

Contact Information

Ashlie DuCros & Associates
Coldwell Banker Previews Global Luxury
21580 Yorba Linda Blvd.
Yorba Linda CA 92887
714-743-9778
Fax: 714-849-5489