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Orange County Housing Update :: August 2016

by Ashlie DuCros

Housing in Orange County is as hot as the heat wave in SoCal!

Now that housing has been restored and distressed properties are only an asterisk, the market has been blossoming. Throw in rock bottom interest rates, even lower than last year, and you have a recipe for strong demand. And, it does not look like interest rates are going anywhere fast. The Federal Reserve raised the short term rate for the first time in nine years back in December of last year. They hinted at four more hikes in 2016. So far, NOTHING. It doesn’t appear that there will be a change until December, if at all. ​

Low interest rates are only part of the reason for hot demand though. This year, like every year since 2008, fewer homeowners are opting to sell. People are staying in their homes a lot longer and are just not moving. On average, the current turnover rate for homeowners is 23 years​.

With a low supply of homes and strong demand, it’s no wonder that there’s a heat wave in housing!


For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT! 

A seller’s market is between 60-90 days with very little appreciation, but sellers still get to call more of the shots during negotiation. 

The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased from 77 to 75 days in the past couple of weeks, a slight seller’s market.

Just the Facts:

  • The average list price for all of Orange County is $1.4 million. 
  • There are 128 more homes on the market compared to last year at this time. 
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.8% of all listings.
  • There were 2,820 closed sales in July, a 9% drop from June and 13% fewer than last year’s 3,243 closings.
  • Typically, the active inventory peaks in August, but this year it peaked in mid-July and has since dropped by 34 homes, now totaling 7,295. 

So if you’re thinking about selling, contact me before buyer activity and demand keeps dropping!



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Where's the Orange County Housing Market Headed?

by Ashlie DuCros

  • Active inventory already surpassed last year’s peak and is still growing, but it will fall short of the long term average.The active inventory has climbed without pause and will outpace last year's  numbers. There have not been enough homes on the market, and buyers have been tripping over each other in order to purchase their piece of the American Dream. BUT, after the peak of summer, the inventory will start to fall during the Autumn Market as unsuccessful homeowners throw in the towel, realizing that both the Spring and Summer Markets will be in the past.

  • Demand has been hot this year, but is starting to fade with the Spring Market in the rear view mirror. At one point, demand exceeded 2015 levels but from here on out, demand will slowly drop as summer progresses and will then drop even more during the Autumn Market and presidential election season, and will reach the lowest levels of the year during the Holiday Market. With demand slowing a bit due to summer distractions, from now through the end of the year, careful pricing will be crucial in order to find success. 

  • The expected market time is on the rise and it’s taking longer to sell a home this year compared to 2015. The expected market time is the amount of time it will take for a newly listed home to be placed into escrow. From March to May, the OC market was HOT and the expected market time was only 2 months! Since then, with all of the cyclical distractions,graduation and summer, the expected market time has been rising at a rapid pace. For all of Orange County, it has risen from 56 days to 79 days, adding an additional 23 days.

The market is still really hot for homes below $750,000 and condominiums below $500,000, but every price range has been slowing. The market will continue to slow throughout the summer. As the market downshifts, buyers move away from a willingness to pay any price to obtain a home, to a strong desire to pay the Fair Market Value for a home, a value determined by the most recent pending and closed sales. And, the market will slow considerably more during the Autumn Market and will most likely surpass the 90-day mark, a balanced market that does not favor buyers or sellers. 

If you are a homeowner who is debating listing your home for sale this year, now is a great time. Call me today and I can help you take advantage of the buyers that are ready, willing and able to buy in your neighborhood.



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Contact Information

Ashlie DuCros & Associates
Coldwell Banker Previews Global Luxury
21580 Yorba Linda Blvd.
Yorba Linda CA 92887
Fax: 714-849-5489