Spring Market has Arrived!!

In Southern California, it is hard to tell the seasons apart. You have to look up at the trees to see if there are leaves or not. The time of the sunset is another dead giveaway. Are there flowers yet?

Similarly, there are signs that the housing market has officially changed. There is a steady stream of buyers at open houses for all homes priced below $1.25 million. Sellers are entertaining multiple offers within days of coming on the market. Buyers are writing offers before even seeing the home. That’s right; the crazy Spring Market has arrived.

Many are scratching their heads knowing that the first day of spring is not until March 20th. That is when the days are longer, the flowers are blooming, and trees are sprouting their new leaves. However, the Spring Market in Southern California actually starts in February and runs all the way through the end of May. The expected market time, the amount of time it would take to place a home onto the market and then into escrow, dips to its lowest level of the year. Orange County housing is already moving at a feverish pitch.This year will be similar to 2017 when the expected market time dipped below 60-days, considered a hot, seller’s market, throughout the entire Spring Market. Spring 2018 is going to be hot. Buyers will be faced with tremendous competition to buy, and sellers will be running the table. 

Take a look at the velocity of the market already. For detached homes, the expected market time dipped below 60-days for the first time since the start of April 2017. It is less than a month, 29-days, for homes priced below $500,000. For homes priced between $500,000 and $750,000, it is a 31-day market. It is a hot market for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million with a 39-day expected market time. From $1 million to $1.25 million, it too is below the 60-day threshold at 51-days. From $1.25 million to $1.5 million, it is still considered a seller’s market, just not a mad rush like the lower ranges.

  • The active listing inventory increased by 207 homes in the past two weeks, up 5%, and now totals 3,981. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,448 homes on the market, 467 more than today.
  • There are 29% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 20%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, skyrocketed in the past two weeks by adding an additional 522 pending sells, up 30%. The average pending price is $909,074.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.8 million over the past two weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 33 days. This range represents 36% of the active inventory and 57% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 43 days, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 21% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 54 days, a hot seller’s market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time dropped from 112 days to 81. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 145 to 122 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 221 days to 163 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time fell from 355 to 349 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 39% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County dropped from 64 days to 52 in the past two weeks, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). From here, we can expect the market time to drop a little bit more by the end of the month.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 16 foreclosures and 23 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 39 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 8 in the past two weeks and reaching its lowest level since the very beginning of the Great Recession. Last year there were 103 total distressed sales, 164% more than today.There were 1,799 closed residential resales in January, down by 9% from January 2017’s 1,904 closed sales. January marked a 21% drop from December 2017. The sales to list price ratio was 97.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 1.1% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.8%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity

​​If you're interested in finding out more information on selling your home, please contact us at 714-743-9778, or send us your inquiry to Ashlie@ashlieducros.com